Shillinkii Mee?
Waxa cirka isku sii shareeraya sarifka $ marka lagu badalayo S/land shilling halka uu wadankiina kasii guurayo gabi ahaanba lacagtiisii oo afkii US Dollar uu ku hadhay uun,.
Waxa isa soo taraya cabashooyinka kasoo yeedhaya dadka ku dhaqan Jamhuuriyadda S/land kaas oo salka ku haya abaaro baahsan iyo Sicir barar aan loo adkaysan karin wallow ay dawladu isku dayday inay xaaladaa wax ka qabato haddana way ku fashilantay sababta oo ahayd iyada oo aan la darsin sababaha dhabta ee keenay iyo sida u macquulsan ee loola tacaali lahaa.
Haddaba qoraalkan kooban waxaynu ku lafa guri doonaa qoddobo dhawr ah oo kala ah
1. Waa maxey sicir bararku?
2. Maxaa keena?
3. Daabacaada lacag cusubi lug intee leeg bay ku yeelan kartaa sicir bararka?
Waa maxey Sicir –bararku?
Waa marka uu korodh ku yimaado qiimihii alaabada & adeegyada. Waxa jira halbeegyo lagu cabirto sicir –bararka waxaana ugu caansan inta la ogyahay (CPI) Customer Price Index & (RPI) Retail Price index, labadanba waxa laga dhex arkayaa nolol maalmeedkeena iyo sida uu isku badbadalayo. Tusaale haddii uu CPI yahay 2% taasi macnaheedu waxey ka dhigan tahay celcelis ahaan shaygii aad sanadkii hore iibsatey maanta ma iibsan kartid ilaa aad qiimihii hore ku kordhisid 2%, sida kiilooga tamaandhada ah hadii lagaa siin jiray sanadkii hore 2000 sl shilling in maantana lagaa siiyo in ka badan.
Maxaa keena Sicir-bararka?
Sicir-bararka sidiisaba waxa loo qaybiyaa laba nooc oo kala ah
1. Sicir bararka yimaada marka uu dalabku kordho (Demand-Pull inflation): Sicir bararka noocan ah waxa la arkaa marka uu kor u kaco dalabku amaba iibsigu taasi oo alaabadii gabaabsi noqoto isla jeerkaasna qiimaheedii kor loo qaado.
2. Sicir bararka uu keeno qiimuhu (Cost pull inflation): Sicir bararka noocan ah waxa sababa waxyaabo badan oo ay ka mid yihiin.
Qiimaha wax lagula soo dago (Import Price): 98% alaabada aynu adeegsano waynu lasoo dagnaa, haddaba waxa uu yimaada Sicir-bararku marka lacagta aad wax kula soo dageyso ay ka qiima sareyso ta dalkaaga, waxaynu aragnaa in $1 uu u dhigmayo 8900 sl shilling.
Sicir bararka ka dhasha faa’iido badsiga (Profit Push inflation): taas oo ah in alaabadii lagu gado qiima sareeya iyada oo la eegayo faa’iido badani inay soo gasho.
Wax soo saarkii oo hoos udhaca (Declining Productivity): wax soo saar keenu isagoo marka horeba liitay iminkana meeshaba waa ka baxey taasina waxay sababtay in aynu wax walba lasoo dagno dabadeedna layna sii wado uun.
Lacago badan oo la daabaco (Printing more money): haddii Bangiga dhexe soo daabaco lacago badan waxa la sugaaba waa sicir-barar, sababtoo ah lacagtaasi waxey door muhiima ka qaadataa fadhiisinta qiimaha. Haddii ay ka badato intii loogu tala galay waxey ka dhigan tahay in lacagtii ka badanayso alaabadii dabeedna lacag badani daba yaacayso alaabo yar sidaasna uu ku dhalanayo Sicir-barar.
Dhibaatada ay leedahay Lacag badan oo la daabaco
Waxa ugu weyn ee ay sababtaa waxa weeye qiime dhac ku yimaada lacagta tayadeeda (Declining Purchasing Power). waxa tusaale nool inoo noqon kara in dhawr sano ka hor xabad nacnaca oo lasiin jirey 50 sl shilling ah, oo waxa jirey lacago yar yar sida 5 sh, 10 sh, 20 sh, & 50 sh imikana ay tahay baabacadaa oo tima kasoo baxeen inaad soo hesho. lacagtii 20ka shilling ugu yaraana ay hadeer ugu yar tahay 500 sl shilling. Daabacaada lacag tiro badani waxey sababtaa wax loo yaqaano (Hyperinflation) oo aakhirka keena dhaqaale burbur sidii ku dhacday wadanka Jarmalka 1920kii.
Daabacada lacagta oo badataa waxay dhulka dhigtaa oo qiimaha ka qaadaa lacagta
Sarifka iyo siduu u shaqeeyo
Dhanka dhaqaalaha marka laga eego sarifka waxa jira laba qodob
Qiima Dhac (Depriciation): waxa weeye hoos u dhac ku yimaada exchange Rate-ka amaba sarifka
Qiima kac (Appreciation): kor u kac ku yimaada exchange Rate-ka amaba sarifka
Tusaale Shillin-ka S/land oo ku qiima dhacaya US Dollar-ka
45 sl shilling ayaa u dhignayd $1, halka imikana 8700 sl shilling ayaa u dhigmaya $1 (45-8700= -8655) waxa ku yimi faraqa intaas le,eg mudo 23 sanadood ah.
Cawaaqibta ay keentayna waa kuwaa aynu maanta ka ooyayeno ee shay kastaa uu noqday US Dollar. Shilllinkiina aan waxba lagu faleyn haddii lagu falana isagoo dulaysan la kala qaadanayo.
Gabagabo
Waxa la yidhi karis xun iyana wax ku la, oo haddii xaalku sidaa kasoo rayn waayo laba mid uun bay noqon in macaluul iyo gaajo loo dhinto iyo in dagaalo ka qarxaan wadanka, waa in si mug leh looga hawl galaa arinkan iyada oo laga fiirsanyo talaabooyinka la qaadi doonaa inay yihiin kuwo sii shaqeynaya in muddo ah iyadoo dadkii cilmiga u lahaa loo doonayo si daawo loogu helo.
Abwaan Mustafe Faarax Garane AHUN ayaa xaaladan maanta taagan ka gabyey, balse hadda ayeynu macnaha dhab u fahmaynaa.
Hargaysaabu oon ugu bakhtiyay shacabkii buuraaye
~Sicir bararku wuu sii batiyo obor barayskii
~Baad iyo biyoba doolar baa laysku baayacay
~Bahaloobe dhiig miiratadan baladka haystaaye
~In yarbaa barwaaqaysatoo kiishka buuxsadaye
~Dadwaynaha intiisii badnayd waa bilaa camale
~Hadii aad bangalo leedihiyo adigu baabuur cad
~Badh banaan mid seexdaa jiroo buulna aan geline
~Bariiskaad qubaysaana waad kala bakhayshaane
~Gudi baasto weeyaan golihii baarlamaanadu
~Gacantooda bidixbaa shacbiga lagu bireeyaaye
~Balka hayska ruugaan sidii diiga beeraaye
~Wali dawlad barakaysan oon loo bogaan dhalane!
Raali Galin
Waxan idinka raali galinayaa wixii khalad ah ee ka yimaada erayada soomaliga ah ee aan kasoo turjumay afka ingiriisida oo aanan haynin erayadii dhabta ahaa ee u qalmayey macno ahaan iyo miisaan ahaan.
Xigasho
Tejvan studied PPE at LMH, Oxford University and works as an economics teacher and writer.
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3445/currency/printing-money-and-devaluing-the-currency/
ALLAA-MAHAD-LEH.
WQ: Hibo Ciise Maxamed
hibafaakhir@gmail.com